Fire SlimesTier 2
at Ascent Christchurch
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 20.3% | 9 | 2-5-2 | 33.3% | 38.5% | 40.0% | -4.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 13.3% | 8 | 4-3-1 | 56.2% | 54.2% | 57.3% | +3.5 |
| Wind Allies | 8.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.5% | +4.3 |
| Wind Razorgale | 7.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.6% | -5.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.3% | 5 | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 61.1% | 63.4% | +7.7 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.9% | +5.6 |
| Fire Exia | 5.1% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 39.0% | -8.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.4% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 45.8% | -3.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.2% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 39.9% | -9.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +16.9 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 1.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 73.5% | +22.6 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.7 |
| Wind Cats | 1.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.0% | +19.2 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arisanna | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 34.5% | -24.8 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Silvie | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Fire Slimes decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 23 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 23 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flashfire Horse | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Increasing Danger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ordinary Horse | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Forest Cake | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Slime King | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Boots | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bauble of Mending | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Kind Beastcaller | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lavasoul Tiger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Creative Shock | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hymn of Gaia's Grace | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gaia's Songbird | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Red Slime | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Twilight Slime | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |